The political dynamics in Osun State are undergoing a significant transformation as key players and parties position themselves for the 2026 gubernatorial elections and the 2027 presidential race. The state’s political landscape is marked by shifting alliances, strategic maneuvers, and high-stakes power plays that could redefine its future.
Key Political Actors in Osun State
The major players in Osun State politics include:
- Governor Ademola Adeleke and the Osun State chapter of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
- Ex-Governor Gboyega Oyetola, representing the All Progressives Congress (APC) faction in Osun, with Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, CEO of National Inland Waterways (NIWA), as the APC’s adopted aspirant for the gubernatorial ticket.
- Former Governor Rauf Aregbesola, leading a coalition team within the state.
These actors are central to the unfolding drama, with each vying for dominance in the state’s political arena.
Challenges Facing Governor Adeleke and the PDP
Governor Ademola Adeleke’s political future is tied to the fortunes of the PDP, which is currently grappling with internal disputes. The party faces uncertainty over the authenticity of its National Secretary, with Senator Sam Anyanwu and Mr. Ude Okoye locked in a legal battle. If the court rules that Adeleke’s nomination was signed by an impostor, his candidacy for the 2026 elections could be jeopardized.
Despite these challenges, Adeleke’s popularity in Osun State remains strong. His track record includes winning the Osun West Senatorial bye-election in 2017, narrowly losing the 2018 gubernatorial race, and securing victory in the 2022 gubernatorial elections. In 2023, he delivered Osun State for the PDP in the presidential elections and led the party to sweeping victories in senatorial, federal, and state assembly seats.
The Tinubu Factor: A Game-Changer in Osun Politics
Recent developments suggest a growing camaraderie between Governor Adeleke and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. High-profile meetings involving Adeleke’s family, including music star Davido, and Tinubu’s Chief of Staff have fueled speculation about a potential alliance. This raises two possibilities: Adeleke could defect to the APC, or he might remain in the PDP while enjoying Tinubu’s support for the 2026 elections.
Tinubu’s strategy appears to be part of a broader plan to consolidate support among Southern governors and Christian-dominated Northern states ahead of the 2027 presidential elections. This approach mirrors his actions in Oyo State during the 2023 elections, where he backed Governor Seyi Makinde of the PDP over the APC candidate.
Implications for Osun APC and PDP
If Governor Adeleke defects to the APC, it would have far-reaching consequences for both parties. Adeleke would become the leader of the APC in Osun, gaining control over party and government affairs at the state level, with influence at the federal level as well. This would leave Gboyega Oyetola and his faction marginalized, restricting their relevance to Abuja politics and diminishing their influence in Osun.
For the PDP, Adeleke’s defection would be a significant blow, further weakening the party’s already fragile structure. On the other hand, if Adeleke remains in the PDP and aligns with Tinubu, it could create a unique political dynamic where cross-party collaboration shapes the state’s future.
Conclusion: A Political Crossroads for Osun State
Osun State is at a political crossroads, with shifting alliances and strategic decisions set to shape its trajectory. Governor Adeleke’s next move—whether to defect to the APC or remain in the PDP—will be pivotal. Meanwhile, President Tinubu’s broader strategy to secure Southern and Christian-dominated Northern states underscores the high stakes of the 2027 presidential elections.
- As the 2026 gubernatorial elections approach, Osun State politics will continue to be a battleground for power, influence, and alliances. The outcomes of these maneuvers will not only impact the state but also play a crucial role in Nigeria’s national political landscape.
